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Old 01-28-2008, 10:37 PM   #11
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

View Post Originally Posted by ennazusjsc
... could I change equation 2 to address the probability of finding one of the many gems I need in a particular mine by replacing the P(one gem) with P(one of the four needed out of fourteen gems)? Would the math be the same with the substitution of 4/14 instead of 1/14 for example?
Yes, that's the way it should work out. The actual probability for one gem is 0.0535...something. You can just multiply this by the number of gems you still need in that mine. If you need all 14, this turns out to be about 0.75, which is what we would expect: 1 - P(slagDay) is the chance of NOT finding slag in a given day. Since this is linear and depends only on the number of gems needed, it will make no difference in the recommendation, but you're right, it might be cool to know what your chances are - though painful to watch them diminish over the weeks...

And if you use the same calculation for the gems you already have in that mine, and multiply it by their average value, you would almost come out with the expected daily average earnings from sales of duplicates. Over a few thousand days of waiting for that last gem , it would work out and address jillion's suggestion (I think), except for one flaw.

I say almost, because Arte rarely offers you full value (he has about a 10 point scale I think), which makes it much more difficult to model - so much so that it is probably not useful - the information would be so washed out by averages that it would no longer mean much. Very accurate over eons, but always wrong on any given day - like a weather service's silly "normal high temperature for today". His offering policy is fodder for another thread though.

Last edited by williamson_39; 01-29-2008 at 01:15 PM..
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Old 01-29-2008, 02:38 AM   #12
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

Thanks for your very informative post! Now I know, I'm just not lucky, LOL! And good to know they are not hidden, nor do I have to do math and count which one to pick this time. By the way 2 days on the row - no gems. Maybe I should start tipping Arte. But then again, I am pretty sure that wouldn't matter either. My 7 year old is already screaming: don't give him any moneeyyy!
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Old 01-29-2008, 04:19 PM   #13
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

View Post Originally Posted by williamson_39
1 in 20 (5%) seems like a slim chance, but it's actually pretty good news. It means that 50% of the time, you will find your last missing gem in two weeks or less. Nine times out of ten, you'll be stuck with one gem remaining to finish your collection for less than a month and a half.

Unfortunately, as jillion points out below, there will be times when you are that one in ten that takes longer. As you've seen me say before on the topic of trophies, there is no guarantee with random chance, and for everyone who gets their last gem in a day or two, there is someone who is stuck for months.
I've been trying to get 1 Booger Nugget and 1 Unicorn Horn for the last 2 months. I finally got the Unicorn Horn about 2 weeks ago; trying now for the Booger Nugget.

It seems strange to me though, that I seem to run into the worst statistical cases so frequently. The Wacky Bingoz, Gem Hunt, and I've never gotten a trophy on the games where the trophy is awarded statistically (the Candy Bash 2 trophy was my girlfriend following your advice).

It simply seems so... unlikely. Cognitive dissonance? Perhaps... perhaps not. It'd be interesting to compare my statistical successes with everyone else and see if there's a bias.

I'd be willing to completely abandon my "I'm the unluckiest person in the world" claim if I had evidence to the contrary..


View Post Originally Posted by williamson_39
I realize that your cognitive dissonance bias is busy trashing everything I've just said. But I'm a fan of reason and a hopeless optimist.
I can tell, and it's admirable
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Old 01-29-2008, 05:00 PM   #14
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

View Post Originally Posted by theblueeyz
It seems strange to me though, that I seem to run into the worst statistical cases so frequently. The Wacky Bingoz, Gem Hunt, and I've never gotten a trophy on the games where the trophy is awarded statistically...It simply seems so... unlikely.
Just think of how LUCKY you are to be a member of WI. Statistically, you're a member of a very select group of playerz who understand exactly just how rotten their luck is.

The luck of luck is kind of a "meta analysis". Even though you might expect it to even out across games, there are outliers there too. You are one of the meta-unlucky, I guess. Or just mega-selective in your observations...
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Old 02-01-2008, 03:46 PM   #15
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

View Post Originally Posted by williamson_39
Fact, or "Artefact" ?
Williamson_39

[*]Rocks are not really "hiding" places, they are just things to click. Gems are not placed and covered by rocks in the mine at all.

Just want to clarify. Does this mean that it doesn't matter which rock I click on, I'm either getting a gem that day or I'm not? And only one gem is "available" for me in a given mine on a given day. I hope I'm right so I can stop kicking myself for choosing the "wrong" rock.
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Old 02-01-2008, 05:16 PM   #16
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

View Post Originally Posted by Er3Tr2Tr1
Just want to clarify. Does this mean that it doesn't matter which rock I click on, I'm either getting a gem that day or I'm not?
Yes. It doesn't matter which rock you click.

View Post Originally Posted by Er3Tr2Tr1
And only one gem is "available" for me in a given mine on a given day.
No. All gems are always possible, depending only on which mine you are in. Any of the 14 gems associated with that mine are ALWAYS "available" - you will get one of them unless you happen to hit slag every time (which will only happen 25% of the time). Three days out of four, you will get a gem.
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Old 02-01-2008, 05:40 PM   #17
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

Thank you. It really does make me feel better to know I''m not doing something "wrong." My kids will be glad to know too.
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Old 02-01-2008, 05:54 PM   #18
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

if you tip arte and buy stuff regularly that will help alot he will tell you when there will be rare items he will tell you that and etc.
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Old 02-01-2008, 07:40 PM   #19
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

View Post Originally Posted by sototallyawsome
if you tip arte and buy stuff regularly that will help alot he will tell you when there will be rare items he will tell you that and etc.
I haven't determined yet whether your friendship with Arte has an impact on the gem hunt. It does NOT affect your odds of finding a gem, but it is possible that it has an effect on his offers if you sell them. I'll report back on this thread when I can say for sure.
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Old 02-01-2008, 07:51 PM   #20
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Default Re: Arte's Gem Hunt - EXPLAINED !!

Thanks for helping everyone here on WI♥
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