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-   -   How to win the Jelly Bean Challenge, now showing my strategies for both 3 and 5 guess versions!! (http://www.webkinzinsider.com/forum/gamez-webkinz-world-125/how-win-jelly-bean-challenge-now-250462/)

BERT_X03-20-2008 01:52 AM

How to win the Jelly Bean Challenge, now showing my strategies for both 3 and 5 guess versions!!
 

It now seems like they will be alternating or sometimes switching the 3 guess and 5 guess versions of the Jellybean Challenge.

So, I am posting BOTH of those strategies now. You just have to follow the right one for whichever version is offered.

Since the first step is the same for both, I will only show that once, here at the top in the 3 guess strategy, and it will not be repeated again for the 5 guess version, further down in this post (in light blue text). To follow the 5 guess version, go now to "-->> Step one", then jump way down to the light blue text.

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Jelly Bean Challenge -- the strategy for 3 guesses!

Here briefly is the best strategy for the JBC three guesses version.

1) Measure the jar and beans, calculate the number of beans and enter that as guess #1.

2) If that does not win, subtract one and enter that number as guess #2.

3) If that does not win (or get the special result mentioned in Step 3, explained below), then add one to the original number and enter as guess #3.


Now, a more detailed explanation of the logic behind this strategy.

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-->> Step one: Measure the height of the Jellybean Jar and the Jellybeans very carefully!!

It is absolutely critical to get the best possible guess in your first try.

Look at the jar below as an example. Get a ruler and measure the distance from B to C, the height of the jellybeans in the jar. If you take the reading in millimeters, instead of inches, it will make the math much easier to do. Then measure the distance from A to C, the height inside the jar.

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...yBean2850x.png

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OK, on my computer screen, those measurements are 18 mm and 63 mm. You will probably have different values because display screens are varying sizes. Divide the first number by the 2nd one -- in my case it is 18 divided by 63 which equals about .285.

We learned before that a completely full jar of jellybeans is 10,000 beans. So, multiply the amount of beans in this jar, .285 of full, by 10,000 and that gives an answer of 2850. If you did not get near that same answer with your measurement numbers, then you made a mistake. Do the measurements again.

(if you are following the 5 guess version, scroll down to the light blue text now)

Step 2: Now that you know, by this example how to get a good first guess, you can do the same thing with each Jelly Bean Challenge jar that you see. Yes, they will be different each time!

Hopefully, when you enter that number, it will give you an answer back of, “Oooo, that was close!”. This means that your guess was in a range of 1-200 beans from the correct number. Either more or less, so a total of 400 other numbers that could be the right winning number. If you are told, “Not a bad guess”, then you missed by more than 200 beans.

Step 3: Alright, let’s assume you did your measurements correctly and got the “Oooo” answer. What now?

You can take two more guesses around the first number. It would be unwise to try numbers very far away -- that increases the chance that they might be outside the range the correct number is in.

In fact, my new strategy is to make as little change as possible. Just one number. Here is why.

Another example, we guess 5800 and get a good reply. So, the number has to be within 200 of that guess.

The dashes below show where the correct number might be, the x’s show where it can not be.

xxxxxx5600---------------5800---------------6000xxxxxx = 1st guess

Any guess from 5600 to 6000 has an equal chance of being right with 400:1 odds of a winner. But, let’s guess just one less, 5799 -- this method has an interesting bonus possibility. We could get three different replies to this guess. 1 - it is a winner, 2 - another “Oooo, that was close!” and 3 - “Not a bad guess” (!).

The “Not bad...” reply would mean that the 2nd guess had missed by more than 200 beans. But, then all of the numbers from 5599 to 5999 are wrong!

So, this would tell us that the only number not wrong in the first range of 5600-6000 is --- 6000! We would have found the answer!

xxxxxx5600---------------5800---------------6000xxxxxx = 1st guess
xxxxxx5599xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5799xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5999-6000xxxxxx = 2nd guess

Step 4: You did not win on either guess one or two and also did not learn the correct number with a “Not a bad guess” answer. So, make a final guess that has the best chance of being in the correct range. Obviously, that would be 5801 in this example, adding just one to the first guess. Any other number would be more likely to go outside the correct number’s range and have a bigger chance of being wasted.

Summary and some last thoughts. With my new strategy, you can make three guesses at 400:1 odds, plus have one chance (also 400:1 odds) of learning the correct answer in Step 3. So, that actually gives you 4 chances to win. 400:4 or 100:1 odds (1%) of winning the Super Jellybean Jar. I believe that is the best you can do with three guesses.

Remember, you will NOT win a Jellybean Jar very often -- only about 1 time in 100 tries!!

Some people have wondered why so many winning numbers, that people have posted, end in 00 or 50. I think that people guess those nice round numbers a lot, so they would win a lot -- but are NOT more likely to be a correct number. People have won on some strange numbers too.

Another question has been, what to do if the first guess is bad -- you missed by more than 200 beans. Then, measure the jar and beans again. Decide if the number is actually more or less than the first guess. Change your first guess by 400 in the right direction (200 for the miss and another 200 for a new Oooo answer) and the 2nd guess should be in the correct range now. 3rd guess can be one less, but there will be no answer to it or any guesses left after that.

Good luck to everyone! Hope that this helps you win more Super Jellybean Jars.


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Jelly Bean Challenge -- the strategy for 5 guesses!

At step one, lets assume that I made a measurement of the Jellybean Jar and found it was about 3000.

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...nz/JB3000z.png

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...kinz/JBa4z.png

The answer that I got indicated a very good guess. The complete list of answers and their meanings are as follows:

"Wow, that was way off!", means that you are 1000 beans or more off in your guess.

"You'll need to be closer!", indicates that you are 500 to 999 beans off.

"Not a bad guess!", shows that you are between 200 and 499 beans off.

And, "Oooo, that was close!", is under 200 beans off.

That last answer is the one that can now be used to further zero in on the correct number of Jelly Beans in your jar.

Here is the range that I now knew the number of jelly beans MUST fall between. The "x's" indictate where the right answer can NOT be.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2800----------3000----------3200xxxxxxxxxxxxx = 1st guess

Next, I will show how to split that range in half and figure out which side the right answer is on. To do that, take the middle number (3000) and subtract 200. That equals 2800, my next guess.

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...inz/JB2800.png

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...kinz/JBa3z.png

This answer told me the 2nd guess was within 200 of 2800 jelly beans, so the correct number is in the lower half of the previous range.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx2800----------3000----------3200xxxxxxxxxxxxx = 1st guess
2600xxxxxxxxxx2800----------3000xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx = 2nd guess

See, I already knew, from the first guess, that the number could NOT be less that 2800. And now the 2nd guess told me that the number could NOT be more than 3000, because it had to be within 200 of the 2800 guess. I learned the range for the correct number was 2800-3000.

If instead, the 2nd answer had come back with "Not a bad guess", it would have meant that my guess missed by more than 200. That would have told me the number was in the upper half of the 1st range, meaning 3000-3200 would have been where the correct number was.

OK, same idea for guess number 3, the correct range is now 2800-3000. To find which half of that range is correct, I picked the middle value of 2900 and subtracted 200 off. So, I used 2700 for the 3rd guess.

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...inz/JB2700.png

Once again the answer on this guess was "Oooo, that was close!", which is under 200 beans off.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx2800-----2900-----3000xxxxxxxxxxxxx = 2nd guess
2500xxx2700xxx2800-----2900xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx = 3rd guess

So, the bottom half of the range is where the correct number is, 2800-2900. Just as before, if I got a different answer, it would have meant it was in 2900-3000 instead.

I have narrowed the possible answer down to just a range of 100 numbers. I could do this one more step and know within 50 numbers. Then I would have a 50:1 chance (2%) of hitting the answer in my final guess. But, it is a little bit better to guess twice for the number now.

There is a 100:1 chance of guessing it right on my 4th try and I'd have a 99:1 chance on my final guess. Combined, that is 2.01% odds of being right in one of those guesses.

Any number in the range of 2800 to 2900 would have a chance to be right -- I picked 2850 as my 4th guess.

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...inz/JB2850.png

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Bingo!! That was the correct amount of jellybeans in this jar!! :D

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...llyBeanWin.png

Here is what the Super Jellybean prize looks like in the dock. It is a food item, that can be fed to your pet. It is SUPER food that will boost your pet's meters up to 100, no matter how low they were. Sorry, it does not go into a refrigerator or storage container. It can not be put into a room either. In this forum's Gift Exchange Guide it is given a trade value of 35,000-40,000kc.

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...yBeanDockz.png

Yes, you will need to get very lucky to hit the right answer. But, my strategy will get you close enough to make a good guess that has a better chance of being right. Much smarter than picking blind numbers, that would probably never hit the target.

I hope that you can use my strategy to win a Super Jelly Bean Jar too! :thumbup:

--> Here is another of my 5-guess version wins.

The numbers guessed and what that told me were:

8300 (Oooo, close) = 8100 to 8500 range
8500 (Oooo, close) = 8300 to 8500 range
8600 (Not bad) .... = 8300 to 8400 range
8350 = BINGO, a winner!

--> And one more of my 5-guess version wins.

This time my numbers guessed and what that told me were:

1600 (Oooo, close) = number had to be in 1400 to 1800 range
1400 (Oooo, close) = number had to be in 1400 to 1600 range
1300 (Not bad) .... = number had to be in 1500 to 1600 range
1525 (Oooo, close) = this guess was not correct
1550 = that was a winner!

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If you do win, please post your winning numbers on this thread. Here are my 21 wins.

.#1 2850 -- 3/23/08, 4th guess

.#2 8350 -- 4/20/08, 4th guess

.#3 1550 -- 4/25/08, 5th guess

.#4 3800 -- 5/30/08, 1st guess

.#5 9136 -- 6/05/08, 3rd guess (3-guess version)

.#6 6214 -- 7/05/08, 2nd guess (3-guess version)

.#7 8460 -- 7/07/08, 5th guess

.#8 4895 -- 7/11/08, 4th guess

.#9 9942 -- 7/11/08, 5th guess

#10 1588 -- 7/11/08, 5th guess

#11 2446 -- 7/13/08, 5th guess

#12 3984 -- 7/13/08, 5th guess

#13 1576 -- 7/16/08, 5th guess

#14 8460 -- 7/19/08, 4th guess

#15 8044 -- 7/19/08, 5th guess

#16 3533 -- 7/28/08, 3rd guess (3-guess version)

#17 2250 -- 8/02/08, 3rd guess (3-guess version)

#18 5978 -- 8/18/08, 3rd guess (3-guess version)

#19 1454 -- 8/25/08, 3rd guess (3-guess version)

#20 5459 -- 8/30/08, 2nd guess (3-guess version)

#21 4412 -- 9/01/08, 1st guess (3-guess version)


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vanvan2003-20-2008 01:58 AM

Re: How I won the Jelly Bean Challenge -- and you can too!
 
Wow, thanks for sharing. Now I know what to do. :)

proud*mom03-20-2008 01:59 AM

Re: How I won the Jelly Bean Challenge -- and you can too!
 
I will have to use this next time it comes up

Dixiecup03-20-2008 02:04 AM

Re: How I won the Jelly Bean Challenge -- and you can too!
 
I knew it was that way. I should have been a bit more patient with myself...for Pete's sake...
I should have guessed using a 50 in the total instead of rounding to the nearest 100...I would have gotten it too.
Thank you. I will apply this newly gained knowledge and strategy with the NEXT jellybean challenge. Hopefully, I will be posting a win in the near future, LOL.

chaotic03-20-2008 03:39 AM

Re: How I won the Jelly Bean Challenge -- and you can too!
 
You are a Mathemiticer! PLUS-A-DELIC!:bow:
Now can you go open up your GE?!;)

weeded10003-20-2008 03:51 AM

Re: How I won the Jelly Bean Challenge -- and you can too!
 
Wow! How much do you get by winning the JellyBeanContest?!

kelbel7503-20-2008 03:56 AM

Re: How I won the Jelly Bean Challenge -- and you can too!
 
Great strategy skills. I'm going to try that on the next
Jelly Bean Challenge.
Thanks for posting!:thumbup:


BERT_X03-20-2008 12:57 PM

Re: How I won the Jelly Bean Challenge -- and you can too!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dixiecup (Post 6124686)
I should have guessed using a 50 in the total instead of rounding to the nearest 100...I would have gotten it too. Thank you. I will apply this newly gained knowledge and strategy with the NEXT jellybean challenge. Hopefully, I will be posting a win in the near future, LOL.

I researched for every win that was posted on this forum. Seven winners mentioned their correct Jelly Bean number and three of those (plus mine) did end in a 50.

Could be a coincidence, but I'm trying round numbers in the final guesses from now on. Might even further improve the odds of winning.

Quote:

Originally Posted by weeded100 (Post 6124882)
Wow! How much do you get by winning the JellyBeanContest?!

The prize isn't money -- it is a jar of Super Jellybeans.

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r...lyBeanJarz.png

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weeded10003-20-2008 01:03 PM

Re: How I won the Jelly Bean Challenge -- and you can too!
 
Just that? Wow.

webfamily03-20-2008 01:09 PM

Re: How I won the Jelly Bean Challenge -- and you can too!
 
Thank you so much for the tips. I had actually quit trying the jellybean challenge because it seemed so impossible. But I'm ready to give it a shot now... I just hope I don't get caught with the ruler on my computer screen... people already think I'm addicted!


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