Blue Box Research: New Year, New Blue... feel free to help join in testing a new theory!

[Flicka28]

Hiya Jenn,

I adopted my Pheonix last night and opened the blue box right away.

US Account
Rare was at 10:00 pm 2/24/09 Bejeweled coffee table
Opened blue box at 12:52 am 2/25/09
Prize was the Bejeweled coffee table



So I am now wondering if this was just luck or does it mean something? I opened the box about 2 hours after the rare but it was a different day technically. Let me know what you think.

Thanks Flicka

[yummy55555]

No, it was robably just some bad luck. At least you got a rare!!

[Jenn]

Originally Posted by Flicka28

Hiya Jenn,

I adopted my Pheonix last night and opened the blue box right away.

US Account
Rare was at 10:00 pm 2/24/09 Bejeweled coffee table
Opened blue box at 12:52 am 2/25/09
Prize was the Bejeweled coffee table



So I am now wondering if this was just luck or does it mean something? I opened the box about 2 hours after the rare but it was a different day technically. Let me know what you think.

Thanks Flicka

Flicka,

First let me say thanks for keeping such good records... people have had this happen before, but not regularly enough to be statistically valid... in other words... no one can tell when it can happen and when it won't. I do think it's very interesting though...

Another thing I have wondered, though I'm not up late enough very often anymore to try, "Is there a better chance of getting a rare in the blue box in the earlier hours of the day?" This would be next to impossible to test, but I do wonder.

Thanks so much for your input, and your help on the blue box thread!

Peace, Jenn

---------- Jenn added 19 Minutes and 0 Seconds later ----------

Originally Posted by MarianHM

Hello Have you consider the time ywhen the blue box is given.

What if the Item you get is allready there... when you opened, I mean is not chosen in the time you opend, so it does not matter the time of opening, because you where sopouse to get allways the same,

What if is the time in wich you get the box that is the one is inportant ?

You know, Marian, I hadn't really given this much thought... though it might be interesting to pursue in the future! Thanks so much for sharing the idea!

Peace, J

And Addykinz... thanks so much for you kind words and enthusiasm, and welcome to the blue box thread! It's great to have you! If you ever have any questions, feel free to post them, or PM me... it's all just work with math and theories! Peace, Jenn

[Breezer]

Originally Posted by MarianHM

Hello Have you consider the time ywhen the blue box is given.

What if the Item you get is allready there... when you opened, I mean is not chosen in the time you opend, so it does not matter the time of opening, because you where sopouse to get allways the same,

What if is the time in wich you get the box that is the one is inportant ?

I've also wondered about this point, but doesn't the box or whatever it is where you gift pops up, spin or shuffle like it is thowing out a gift to you randomly? At least that is what it looked like to me.
Kind of like it does when you harvest something in your garden that gives you multiple vegetables, it looks like it is shuffling and then randomly stopping. Does that make sense? LOL

[Dixiecup]

To some degree, yes. But according to Ganz; we are not supposed to EVER get rares as a bonus adoption gift. We are only ever supposed to get exclusive items. This is tracking whether the instances are increased during a Rare offered time or if those instances are random, as you say. So far it looks like that Rare offered time could easily be an influence

[MsHoliday]

Good morning everyone.
Just entered a blue box on European account
4:01 before 5:00 rare coming up.
Received Precious Stone Side Table
date 3/6/09

Hope this helps. not confuses, since it is before rare.

---------- MsHoliday added 2 Minutes and 39 Seconds later ----------

Maybe it was because it was a Web Cares I found in a sack I had back(hidden)LOL
Black Bear---Ski Fireplace and the coveted blue wagon. LOL

[FathomlessAbyss]

FASCINATING topic. I am a bit of a stat geek, so I had to post. For this exercise, there is a public health statistic that you can use with the data. It's called the odds ratio-- it's used to measure the relative risk of getting an outcome based on exposure. Here, your outcome is getting a rare, and your exposure is opening your box inside of a 30 minute window prior to Arte's rare. Using the data from the first post (apologies-- I did not have the time to update the data from all the subsequent posts), the Odds Ratio is set up like this:

A= Got a rare, opened inside of 30 minute window= 75
B= Did not get rare, opened inside of 30 minute window= 200
C= Got a rare, did not open inside 30 min window= 151
D= Did not get rare, did not open inside 30 min window= 277

Odds Ratio (OR) = AD/BC = 0.63
95% CI = OR +/- 1.96(1/A + 1/B + 1/C + 1/D)^0.5
= 0.30 (lower end) and 0.95 (upper end)

The odds ratio statistic is 1.00 if there was no effect on the outcome from the exposure. The further away from 1.00, the more pronounced the risk, either in a positive or negative direction. Here you have an odds ratio here less than 1.00, What this tells you is that you are actually LESS likely to get a rare if you open the box near Arte's rare. Specifically, you are (1.00-0.63=) 37% LESS likely to get a rare if you open your box in the 30 minute window.

Your sample size could probably use more participants-- but you are very close. For a good CI (or "confidence interval"), you want a narrow band and you don't want it to include the 1.00 value. A narrow band means you have lots of concurring data. The band here (0.30 to 0.95) is fairly wide. More importantly, the upper band of 0.95 approaches 1.00-- the point of no effect. But the fact that your upper band DID NOT touch 1.00 is still meaningful-- it does lend credence to the calculated odds ratio, essentially meaning that the 30 minute window is likely to have a negative effect (even a small one) on getting a rare.

Bottom line, in my humble opinion, the theory holds up-- don't open your box near Arte's rare.

Thanks for the diversion. Have a nice day.

[MsHoliday]

Wow FathomlessAbyss1----Your theory might account for why I received a rare one approximately one hour before the rare.

Welcome to Webkinz Insider.

[FathomlessAbyss]

Quick correction to my math-- I plugged in those numbers with a tailored equation on my spreadsheet (for lack of a better explanation-- super stat geekiness). The actual caculation of the OR as I described is AD/BC =.69, just a little more positive than originally presented, but well short of 1.00. The other numbers are good. Still, the stat holds up: opening the blue box inside the 30 minute window has a negative effect on getting a rare.

[Bear10176]

US Account
Rare was at 7:00 pm 3/14/09
Opened blue box at 3:43 pm 3/14/09
Prize was the Disco Ball