Blue Box Research: New Year, New Blue... feel free to help join in testing a new theory!

[albinomex]

Yeah! I know, right! She is so excited to have a few more items in her Aztec room now.

[FireBranda]

Control Group

Last night 9pm KT NA account

Box 1- 1000kc coin
box 2- 1000kc coin
box 3- Egyptian vanity
box 4- Aztec walls

woo hoo!! 2 rares in 4 boxes!! not bad for ds!!

[footie]

Jenn - I just love this thread!!!

I needed another medieval dresser so I adopted a new baby panda, fed him, bought the dresser then put him to bed in the medieval bed and opened up the blue box right after that. And this is what I got ...

I really needed it too!

Just as a side note the last time I opened a blue box was when there was not a sale or rare going on I also got a rare item. The similarity was both times I put the animal to bed in the medieval bed.

[Jenn]

A Blue Box Update

Hey to all you Blue Boxers out there! Just wanted to offer up a post of update for you...

To date we have recorded opening of 723 blue boxes! Of that 723 boxes, 226 boxes have included rare items. Statistically, that’s 31% of boxes opened have contained rares, or just a smidge below a 1 in3 chance of getting a rare when you open a blue box... not much change there. These are overall findings.

Those 723 boxes can be divided into two groups: those opened in the 30 minutes before the rare (our research group) and all other (control group).

Control group: 428 (of our 723) boxes have been opened outside (not during) that “30 minutes before the rare” time, 151 (of our 226) have been rares. That’s 35% of boxes opened “at any time” contained rares, or just above that one in three chance of getting a rare when you open a blue box.

Research group: 295 (of our 723) boxes have been opened before the rare, 75 (of our 226) have been rare items. That 25% of boxes opened contained rares, or about a 1 in 4 chance of getting a rare when opening. This is less than the average, which would suggest the theory in the first post is disproven.

You may notice, though that there are 133 more boxes in the control group... best case scenario would be if we had more “research” boxes... the more even in number the two groups, the better able we are to compare them... so, please post those research boxes!

I’ve also divided out the boxes opened on Asian accounts...

Asian account data: 168 (of the 723) boxes have been opened on Asian accounts, of those 168 boxes, 47 have been rares. Statistically, that’s 28% of boxes opened have contained rare items... a little less than 1 in 3 chance of getting a rare, and again these are overall findings. This seems to show that getting a rare is just a little less likely on Asian accounts than on other accounts.

The boxes are distributed very evenly into the research and control groups.

Control group: 87 [of the 168] boxes have been opened outside (not during) that “30 minutes before the rare” time, 21 of which have been rares. That’s 24% of boxes opened “at any time” contained rares, or just below a one in four chance of getting a rare when you open a blue box.

Research group: 81 [of the 168] boxes have been opened before the rare, 26 of which have been rare items. That 32% of boxes opened contained rares, or about a 1 in 3 chance of getting a rare when opening. This is better than the overall average and the control group average, suggesting that the theory in the first post is proven.

Go figure...

I’m hoping if we get more research boxes, the theory will bear out in the long run... but only time will tell! And if you're doing anything exciting with this info, please let me know!

Thanks for all your help and posting... and keep opening those blue boxes!

Peace, Jenn

[reya]

Wow that is a lot of really great data Jenn, you have been working very hard on that. Thanks so much for those great numbers. I will remember to post my boxes as I open them in the future to help out. Thanks again for all of your hard work.

[albinomex]

Wow!!! I am amazed by how hard you have worked on this thread, theory, & blue boxes! Wow!!!
I loved seeing how the results turned out.
Have a Wonderful day!

[reya]

Ok I have one for you Jenn

American Account
3:40 pm (within 1/2 hour of the rare)
1,000 KC coin

It put me right in my Ancient Room and I was really hoping that was a good sign, I think I have better luck when it puts me in the bathroom

[Jenn]

Originally Posted by reya

Ok I have one for you Jenn

American Account
3:40 pm (within 1/2 hour of the rare)
1,000 KC coin

It put me right in my Ancient Room and I was really hoping that was a good sign, I think I have better luck when it puts me in the bathroom

Thanks very much, reya! Have you tried holding on to your blue boxes until you have three and then seeing what happened? It's a trend I've seen in my own opening... if I open three in a row usually one has a rare in it... just a thought... and again, it's only a theory... so no guarantees LOL!

Peace, Jenn

[reya]

Originally Posted by Jenn

Thanks very much, reya! Have you tried holding on to your blue boxes until you have three and then seeing what happened? It's a trend I've seen in my own opening... if I open three in a row usually one has a rare in it... just a thought... and again, it's only a theory... so no guarantees LOL!

Peace, Jenn

Great tip, thanks so much! I have some I've been holding onto logging on so I'll definitely try out this theory and see what happens

[thebigmike]

Current time: 10:35 pm EST on my US account... I just opened 3 blue boxes in my Egyptian room while laying in my Egyptian bed and of the 3 the first one was an Egyptian Majestic Throne .. The second was a thoughtful think tank and the third was a dancing zingo