Blue Box Research: New Year, New Blue... feel free to help join in testing a new theory!

[Jenn]

I think we've exhausted the research on opening a blue box before a rare... having worked at it now for a little over a year. There is a 1 in 4 chance of getting a rare item in the blue box. Opening the box any time, there is a 1 in 3 chance of finding a rare in the box.

So... is anyone interested in ****ing test a NEW theory?

Here's a new theory:

"If I open my blue box** in a room with rare items inside, I am more likely to get a rare item in that blue box**."

I don't know if this one will pan out or not... but I'd love to have anyone who is willing ****!





If you'd post:

• Account type (US, Asian, Euro) date and KinzTime of opening blue box

• What kind of rares were in the room (Egyptian, Aztec, Ancient Civilization, Medieval, Palace Princess, Science, unthemed, mixed)

• What you received in the blue box

I recently opened a Deluxe box in a rare room, and got a rare item in there (this is the ONLY time that's ever happened to me, and I haven't heard it happening to anyone else) and that has me thinking that maybe it's the room in which the box is opened that may be the key! Not that the idea is original with me... many who have posted on this thread have made that observation previously

If you'd be interested in ****ing to track your Deluxe boxes, a thread has been started for that and can be found at:

http://www.webkinzinsider.com/forum/...-prize-597932/


If you're curious about the original research theory, please click on the spoiler below... and thanks in advance to all who will ****

And last, but certainly not least:

An ENORMOUS thank you to all who have posted on the the thread thus far, I hope you'll continue to post here in the future.

Without you, there would've been no Blue Box Research to begin with, and no reason to continue it in a new direction!

Peace,
Jenn

**A "blue box" is... a Bonus Gift Box, which is received as an additional adoption gift after you have adopted 10 pets. Please note you only get these boxes when adopting pets 11-14… on pet 15 you get a yellow Super Exclusive Gift Box (better known as a bed box.) Yellow boxes then come with pets 20, 25, and so on. On the numbers in between 16-19, 21-24, you get the blue box. See thumbnail picture below.

Spoiler: show

Here's a theory:

"If I open my blue box** just before a rare item comes into the Curio Shop, I am more likely to get a rare item in that blue box**."

Right now it's a theory, but some of us have been trying it, and if you're willing to **** or have some research to share... here's the place to post it! That will also make easier to collect and tally. And remember... all boxes posted are ****ful! But the theory is looking at if a rare comes more often if opened JUST BEFORE a rare item in the Curio Shop.

What information to post: If you're going to leave info, please include... US, Euro or Asian account, date and kinz time you opened the box...if you have an Asian or Euro account, please post the date and KT there... exact KT is ****ful e.g. 1:55 KT, 6:58 KT... and what item you received when the box was opened.

Account type (US, Euro or Asian), Date (on account used), Rare/time (if known)
Time box was opened, item inside

example:
US account, 12-25-08, 12 noon rare=Ra's Golden Bureau
11:48am KC Coin
11:55am Rockin Robot Digital Clock
11:57am Ancient Civilization Flooring



How do I know when the rare item will appear in the Curio Shop?
If you haven't reached level 7 with Arte yet, you can just check in the WI forum, and check at the top. It will tell you the times of the next rare. Just click on the link I've posted below:

Rare And CSO Items


If you don't open just before a rare, your welcome to post your info here, too, and it'll add to our control group! This information is as important as the info on boxes opened just before rares--it gives us something to measure against... for example (not proven) if the chance of getting a rare in the blue box before a rare is 1 in 3 that's great... but what is it the rest of the time? If it's always 1 in three, well, then I guess we can all open our boxes whenever we want. EVERY BOX THAT GETS OPENED ****S US LEARN MORE.

FYI... this is not the only thread doing "research" on blue boxes... please be sure to check out:

Blue Box Research II (Sale Hour Surprise?) at:

Blue Box Research II (SALE HOUR SURPRISE?)

Many thanks to Peacock Noodle for taking the time and energy to get started! These two threads complement one another, so it may be ****ful to post both here and there.

For additional info, check out my original post... it's got more details!

Asian 9/29 rare @ 4pm Dresser of the Lost City, and Nothing More. - Page 52

You're also welcome to post questions, or ask for clarification... I certainly don't have all the answers, but I'll do my best to answer what I can. Thanks for all your ****!

Peace,

Jenn

**A "blue box" is... a Bonus Gift Box, which is received as an additional adoption gift after you have adopted 10 pets. Please note you only get these boxes when adopting pets 11-14… on pet 15 you get a yellow Super Exclusive Gift Box (better known as a bed box.) Yellow boxes then come with pets 20, 25, and so on. On the numbers in between 16-19, 21-24, you get the blue box. See picture below.


UPDATE: FEBRUARY 9, 2009 (Post #484)
(this is also posted on the thread,but thought it might be ****ful here, too.)


A Blue Box Update

Hey to all you Blue Boxers out there! Just wanted to offer up a post of update for you...

To date we have recorded opening of 723 blue boxes! Of that 723 boxes, 226 boxes have included rare items. Statistically, that’s 31% of boxes opened have contained rares, or just a smidge below a 1 in3 chance of getting a rare when you open a blue box... not much change there. These are overall findings.

Those 723 boxes can be divided into two groups: those opened in the 30 minutes before the rare (our research group) and all other (control group).

Control group: 428 (of our 723) boxes have been opened outside (not during) that “30 minutes before the rare” time, 151 (of our 226) have been rares. That’s 35% of boxes opened “at any time” contained rares, or just above that one in three chance of getting a rare when you open a blue box.

Research group: 295 (of our 723) boxes have been opened before the rare, 75 (of our 226) have been rare items. That 25% of boxes opened contained rares, or about a 1 in 4 chance of getting a rare when opening. This is less than the average, which would suggest the theory in the first post is disproven.

You may notice, though that there are 133 more boxes in the control group... best case scenario would be if we had more “research” boxes... the more even in number the two groups, the better able we are to compare them... so, please post those research boxes!

I’ve also divided out the boxes opened on Asian accounts...

Asian account data: 168 (of the 723) boxes have been opened on Asian accounts, of those 168 boxes, 47 have been rares. Statistically, that’s 28% of boxes opened have contained rare items... a little less than 1 in 3 chance of getting a rare, and again these are overall findings. This seems to show that getting a rare is just a little less likely on Asian accounts than on other accounts.

The boxes are distributed very evenly into the research and control groups.

Control group: 87 [of the 168] boxes have been opened outside (not during) that “30 minutes before the rare” time, 21 of which have been rares. That’s 24% of boxes opened “at any time” contained rares, or just below a one in four chance of getting a rare when you open a blue box.

Research group: 81 [of the 168] boxes have been opened before the rare, 26 of which have been rare items. That 32% of boxes opened contained rares, or about a 1 in 3 chance of getting a rare when opening. This is better than the overall average and the control group average, suggesting that the theory in the first post is proven.

Go figure...

I’m hoping if we get more research boxes, the theory will bear out in the long run... but only time will tell! And if you're doing anything exciting with this info, please let me know!

Thanks for all your **** and posting... and keep opening those blue boxes!

Peace, Jenn


Previous update posts:
Post #161: http://www.webkinzinsider.com/forum/...l#post10897478
Post #175: http://www.webkinzinsider.com/forum/...l#post10912347
Post #286: http://www.webkinzinsider.com/forum/...l#post11176479
Post #346: http://www.webkinzinsider.com/forum/...l#post11440133
Post #484: http://www.webkinzinsider.com/forum/...l#post12920962

[mathmom2]

This is fabulous and should be stickied imo!


Many of us have been contributing to this already. Jenn, is there a format in which we should submit our findings?

[maggalina]

I would except what is the blue box

[gripperluverxxoo]

Originally Posted by maggalina

I would except what is the blue box

bonus gift box

[mathmom2]

The blue box is that extra box you get with new adoptions. You start getting them after pet #10. It has many different items in it and we wondered if they are tied to the rares offered in the Curio shop.

[gripperluverxxoo]

thanks for the info, i'll post on the thread when i get a bonus gift box.

[mathmom2]

Pulling this from the old thread ...


Tips and pointers for opening a rare in your blue box (additional adoption gift):

• It is not the adoption time that is crucial… it is when the blue box gets opened.
• Open no more than 15 minutes before the scheduled rare (some have suggested opening as close as possible to the rare is helpful.)
• If you have more than one blue box, and you open the first and don’t get what you want, you may just want to hold the others for the next rare.
• You need to be expecting the rare in the same time zone as you are opening the box (if the rare is in the US it won’t work to open the box on the Asain account and vice versa)
• It doesn’t work to open the box AFTER the rare is in the CS
• If you open boxes one after another, you often get the same item. For example: I had this happen to me (9/25) on my US account—I opened two boxes two minutes apart but I stayed in the same room and didn’t do anything. I got the exact same item in each blue box. When I moved to a different room, I got a different item. (FYI, 2 KC coins and a large pane window) Oddly enough, the same thing happened when I was opening the Pet Specific boxes in the 30 minutes before the rare… I opened two in a row and got the yin yang plant in both. Went to the arcade and came back and got a Zingos Bubble blower, left and came back and got a vortex storage unit.

---------- mathmom2 added 1 Minutes and 8 Seconds later ----------

Just found my answer, Jenn to my question about format for reporting ...

What does this mean if I just want to know when to open my blue box? Go for it. If you could write down the time, date, US or Asian account, and what item you get each time you open one, I’ll add it to the data collected and see what I can find. Below I’ve put some pointers, but I just want to stress—no guarantees, here folks… just hopes.

[momtofaye]

From the old Thread:

Okay, here's our blue box data for you:

9/27/08 in Asia:

2:58 PM KT ~ Amethyst Geode in the main box, blue box was 1000kc coin
2:59 PM KT ~ Vortex Storage Unit in main box, blue box was an Amethyst Geode
Argh!

Then in my mom's account, we waited until after the rare:

3:01 PM KT ~ blue box only, 1000kc coin and the second blue box was a Webkinz W Pond

Now, my mom tried this in Asia a couple nights ago ~ opened a blue box within 10 min of the rare and got a giant sandwich table. So, she read that opening them early in the morning seemed to work, too. I saved a box in America until this morning and my son opened it between 8:00-8:10 KT and we got a Domo Roboto Dresser. A rare at last! Yay!

I don't know what this proves or does not prove, but as I mentioned in the other thread, we have over 150 Webbies between us and have had 3 or 4 rares only. Highly disappointing ~ so anything to help improve the odds is good for us!

Thanks so much for your work compiling all the data in one place! That is very helpful! You Rock!

[MaryEllenMc]

Your theory may be a good one. I have over 100 Webkinz. I have a tendency to enter them while I am waiting for a rare item in the Curio Shop. I have recieved a fair number of rares in my blue boxes. I'll have to pay attention.

[Momasandi]

Today I had some boxes to open on my Euro acct, so I opened them after the rare that was at 5pm kt Euro acct and the rare was the Stone Temple Walls today.

I actually opened the first box at 6:20pm kt Euro and I got the twister pot in the first with psi, then in the blue box was an Emperor's Bed.
The 2nd box I opened was around 6:22 pm kt Euro and I got the W Pond, but I didn't get a blue box, instead I got the Super Exclusive Gift Box..... Sorry, I couldn't be more helpful on my 2nd box, but the 1st box was a good one!!!!