Blue Box Research II (SALE HOUR SURPRISE?)

[Peacock Noodle]

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This thread is birthed from Jenn's groundbreaking collaborative research on the probability of getting a rare item in your blue bonus adoption box if you open the box just before Arte offers a rare item in the Curio Shop. Thank you Jenn for calling our attention to this opportunity!

Some of us participating in Jenn's research have found we are also getting rares right before or during a Curio Shop Sale.

Because of the large amount of participation in Jenn's study and the many variables cropping up, I asked Jenn if she thought it might be a good idea if I track the sale hour apart from the rare hour. She agreed that this will be helpful to her. This separate study will also help Jenn and I to better hone in the most favorable times to open our blue boxes.
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Here is the hypothesis (ahem, sounding very scientific):
"If I open my blue box during the Curio Shop Sale hour,
I am more likely to receive a rare item in my blue box."
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Please include the following information in your post to make it easier to tally and track:

1. KT of Curio Shop sale
2. Type of Account
3. Item on sale
4. KT that you opened your box
5. Name of item you received (please note to include the item even if it is not a rare)


For example:

1. Curio Shop sale at 3:00KT today
2. American Account
3. Wheat Field Window on sale
4. Opened my box at 3:20 KT today
5. Received Ancient Wading Pool!! Woohoo!!!

IF YOU OPEN UP MULTIPLE BLUE BOXES IN A DAY, PLEASE INCLUDE YOUR FINDINGS FOR ALL OF YOUR BOXES, NOT JUST THE ONE WHERE YOU HAPPEN TO RECEIVE A RARE. This will help me to explore if there is a connection between the the number of boxes we open compared to the number of rares we receive.
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Q. What is the sale hour in the Curio Shop?
A. Each day Arte has a special sale hour. Please note this is not just when you see an item in his shop at discount.

Q. What if I open my blue bonus box outside the sale hour?
A. EVERY BOX THAT GETS OPENED HELPS US LEARN MORE. If you can be a part of the control group, that is awesome! I know sometimes many of us cannot wait to open our blue boxes. Please do post your information if you open a box outside the sale or rare hour on this thread.
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This is a learning and collaborative effort that I hope you will feel welcome to participate in and most of all have fun doing it!

I will periodically post updates on the research as I track your data.

Please feel free to post questions about anything that may not be clear as well. I will do my best to help you.

Peacock Noodle

[momtofaye]

Hey PN ~

No, I haven't quite made it to bed yet...I was thinking of doing just what you did here ~ I'm glad someone did it, because we seem to get more rares during the sales than we do before the rare.

Do you want us to go back and repost our findings for you here, or are you going to go through the other thread and extract the information from there? I posted one tonight I can repost for you since I still have the info on a sticky note, but the others I've long since thrown away.

Also, I don't always know what is on sale because I often don't want any of the items that are in the Curio Shop during the sale, so I don't waste my time trying to figure out what is the sale item...do we have to post this? And, what about the room we are in (a rare room in our house vs. a non-rare room)...do you want to know that info as well? I always post that info in Jenn's thread since some have said it could possibly make a difference.

Thanks, again, for doing this! I am really going to bed now (less than 4 hours until the Euro rare! Argh!)...see you tomorrow!

[Webberlily]

Peacock Noodle, I admire your enterprise. You and Jenn have got a monumental task in front of you. There's something about this research that has been worrying me for a while. Once someone reports a result, shouldn't they, from that moment, report all further blue box results? Otherwise, the natural human tendency is to report positives more than negatives.

Since Ganz is not supplying us with the percentage of rares in blue boxes, we have to calculate it ourselves, and negative results are very important for this. Just a thought... a middle of the night thought...

[Peacock Noodle]

Hi momtofaye!
We are on the dark side even when there isn't an Asian rare!!! LOL

Reps for you for being the first participant!

I will go through Jenn's thread and extract any "sale" findings.

Thanks for the question about #3:What item is on sale. You do not have to post this information. Where I think it might be helpful is if the sale is the medieval window, and people are receiving medieval rares, there might be a connection. Or, for example, if the sale is a W-shop item and we do not receive rares, or few. I am not sure if there is a connection, but if anyone wants to include this data I will also track it.

Also, if you want to include which room you are in when you open the box I will track that as well.

Thanks so much for participating! I just love getting these rares!

Peacock Noodle

---------- Peacock Noodle added 3 Minutes and 6 Seconds later ----------

Originally Posted by Webberlily

Peacock Noodle, I admire your enterprise. You and Jenn have got a monumental task in front of you. There's something about this research that has been worrying me for a while. Once someone reports a result, shouldn't they, from that moment, report all further blue box results? Otherwise, the natural human tendency is to report positives more than negatives.

Since Ganz is not supplying us with the percentage of rares in blue boxes, we have to calculate it ourselves, and negative results are very important for this. Just a thought... a middle of the night thought...

Hello Webberlily!

You are still up too!
Yes, I agree with you. It is very helpful when people post ALL their blue box findings. I will edit my instructions above to reflect this.

Thanks for bringing this up!
Sweet, rare dreams!
Peacock

---------- Peacock Noodle added 680 Minutes and 47 Seconds later ----------

Here are the CS sale hours for today:

The "sale" in the CS for the American Accts - 2pm kt
The "sale" in the CS for the European Accts - 10pm kt (5:00PM EST)

If you have any blue boxes to open during either of these times you just might find a rare! I cannot promise that, of course. But I will be trying during those hours too. Please post any data you have tonight.

Thank you everyone!

[msclockart]

I'm out of blue boxes at the moment. I'll definitely have to try this when I get some more. Thanks for taking this on, and be sure to let us know what the preliminary data looks like.

[Peacock Noodle]

Originally Posted by msclockart

I'm out of blue boxes at the moment. I'll definitely have to try this when I get some more. Thanks for taking this on, and be sure to let us know what the preliminary data looks like.

msclockart...

I hope the webkinz fairy comes your way! Thank you for wanting to participate!

I will be sure to post preliminary data this week.

Peacock Noodle

Sale is now (5:00-6:00 EST in Euro acct)! Medieval side table. If have any blue boxes you can try now or in the American acct tonight 10:00KT.

[Jenn]

Originally Posted by Webberlily

Peacock Noodle, I admire your enterprise. You and Jenn have got a monumental task in front of you. There's something about this research that has been worrying me for a while. Once someone reports a result, shouldn't they, from that moment, report all further blue box results? Otherwise, the natural human tendency is to report positives more than negatives.

Since Ganz is not supplying us with the percentage of rares in blue boxes, we have to calculate it ourselves, and negative results are very important for this. Just a thought... a middle of the night thought...

Webberlily... interesting question... here, I have been thinking that as long as we have the right amount of "control" boxes vs. "experimental" boxes... a relatively equal number, that would be enough... but this raises an alternate question... that I am not math savvy enough to answer... can we trade info? Are boxes opened at the time of sale "control" boxes for the Blue Box Research thread, and "experimental" boxes for the Blue Box Research II thread? And vice versa? Hmmmm... anyone with more knowledge, I'ld love to hear thoughts, and would appreciate a PM, too.

PN... looks great, sounds great, really nice job with the thread!

Peace, Jenn

[msclockart]

Jenn: You can use the data however you want. If you want to compare sale to non-sale, then the "just before rare" boxes do count as a control. I'm not that great with statistics, so I'm not even sure how to compare three different groups unless you compare each group against the other. It's probably worth looking at every which way.

As far as webberlilly's question goes, when it comes to statistics more data always gives a better result. If everyone reports everything it will be much better for us. I know both threads have a note about reporting everything, but it might help if we make it a little more prominent.

[momtofaye]

Originally Posted by Jenn

Webberlily... interesting question... here, I have been thinking that as long as we have the right amount of "control" boxes vs. "experimental" boxes... a relatively equal number, that would be enough... but this raises an alternate question... that I am not math savvy enough to answer... can we trade info? Are boxes opened at the time of sale "control" boxes for the Blue Box Research thread, and "experimental" boxes for the Blue Box Research II thread? And vice versa? Hmmmm... anyone with more knowledge, I'ld love to hear thoughts, and would appreciate a PM, too.

PN... looks great, sounds great, really nice job with the thread!

Peace, Jenn

I would definitely say that all of the boxes that do not fit into the theorized category will count as control boxes. Since the beginning, I have reported on every blue box we've opened, no matter what we got or when we opened it. So you have complete data from us. If you'd like, I can report my findings on both threads, or if you want to just to read each others thread than that will work, too. Just let me know what is easier for you.

[Peacock Noodle]

1. Curio Shop sale at 2:00KT today
2. American Account
3. Space bed and Basketball Dreams wallpaper on sale
4. Opened my box at 2:30KT today
5. Received Elephant Fountain


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American sale hour today is 8:00 pm & 11:00pmKT
European sale hour is 11:00 pm KT(6:00pmEST)
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In regard to the questions above about tracking:
I am dusting off my statistics book for this project.

However, what would be great is if people post their sale hour findings here on this thread, as well as their non-sale hour findings. On my end I will be noting the rare hour ever day on my tracking sheet so I will be able to pull that information later if I need it. So, if a non sale finding happens to be during a rare time, I will know it on my end.

The benefit of posting the sale item find on this thread is efficiency, not just for you, but Jenn and I. I just went through her 25 page thread and found 12 instances of acquiring rare items in the blue box during the Curio Shop Sale. But it was very time consuming to wade through all the information, or lack of info in some cases. So, if you are purposely opening a box during a sale hour, please post here. I will send all info to Jenn if she wants to consider the sale hour part of her control group so you do not have to double post. Also, please post all non-sale hour openings here as well, because I can later see if those times were during a rare. I can also send Jenn the non-sale hour openings.

However, if you purposely want to experiment right before and after the rare times, please post on Jenn's thread. I will not be considering that time part of the control group, but will be tracking it nonetheless and can always get the information from her.

I think the more streamlined the information can be on the separate threads the better it will flow for the readers, while Jenn and I will have a spreadsheet mess in the background.

This will help us all learn more.

Thanks again so much for being so diligent and helpful! We need everyone to contribute as much as possible!